【防空】【當前新聞】對MH17事件之分析

馬航MH17班機被蘇製Buk導弹撃落是一件徹底的大悲劇，不但給那298名乘客的家人帶来無比悲痛，至少六位的爱滋病專家集體遇難，對全球醫學界更是絕大的打撃。可是大眾的驚訝和憤怒，雖然是合理的反應，卻也是政客們抹黑對手的天儩良機​。如果不想成為旁人借刀殺人的工具，我们就必须實事求是，從事實出發，以邏輯為導，仔细考虑各個相關人物的動機，才能準確地發掘真相。而對真相的了解和傳播，是民主制度有效運作的必要條件，這也是為什麼許多政客急著操控媒體來抹殺真相的原因了。

目前已知的事實有那些呢？首先，所有的媒體報導都同意，這架波音777客機是在烏克蘭東部的動亂交戰地區，被一枚蘇製的Buk導弹在一萬多公尺的巡航高度撃落的。但是交戰雙方都有Buk導弹，所以第一個問题就是這枚導弹是誰打的。其實這答案很明顯：既然雙方都没有打下民航客機的直接動機，那就只能是誤撃或者是栽贓。两邊能出動攻撃機的只有政府軍一方，所以有可能想用防空導弹打撃對方的只能是叛军，而且叛军在幾天前已經撃落了一架政府軍的An26，這次把民航機錯當軍機打是在情理之内的。政府軍可能會打下MH17班機唯一的動機是栽贓。烏克蘭政府是靠示威暴動而推翻前任政權上台的，而當初他的示威會激化成暴動有很大一部分是因為有人對原本和平示威的羣眾開冷槍，於是羣眾自然怪罪在前政府頭上。可是後來歐盟的観察员發现那其實是反對前政府的新纳粹黨徒為了栽贓而開的槍（他們的對話被俄國錄了下來放到youtube的網站上，可是台灣媒體受英美影響，没有報導），這跟歐盟不支持美國打倒烏克蘭前政府有很大的關系。不過雖然新政府這邊有栽贓的前科，一两個激進分子躲在屋顶開冷槍和一羣士兵受命發射一枚五公尺多長的導弹還是有很大的難易差别的，被抓包的後果更不可同日而語：被打死的烏克蘭民眾無權無势，在美國的影響之下也没有西方媒體會去追究；MH17卻是從荷蘭起飛的，機上必然有很多歐洲人，不可能會不了了之。總而言之，栽贓這個可能性雖然存在，但是太過牽強，可以忽略不計。

我們基本上認定了是叛军打的導弹之後，下一個問题就是那導弹是那裡來的。美國人，上至總統，下至電台，一口咬定是俄國給的，可是没人提得出任何證據來；唯一的例外是希拉蕊，她說反正導弹是俄國製造的，那這些人命就自然算在俄國頭上。可是Buk導弹其實是蘇聯時代的產品，而烏克蘭也是蘇聯的一部分，所以她的事實已經是扭曲過的了；誰製的武器就决定誰負責人命更是完全不通的邏輯，否則台灣賣了幾十億發子弹給美軍在伊拉克打死了幾千人，其中有很多是無辜的老百姓，豈不是代表著台灣得替美國背那些血债？所以俄國有没有責任要看叛军的Buk是那裡來的。這裡是事發幾天前媒體拍到叛军的Buk導弹車：



請注意它就是那麼一輛，而不是一組車隊，這是非常不尋常的，因為Buk飛弹的最小戦術單位是一個营，只有在营级才有搜索雷達（搜索半徑100公里）；即使是行政單位最小也是一個連，由两輛飛弹車和一輛補給車組成。如果叛军的Buk是俄國給的，一給至少是一個营，在行軍的時候必然是有至少三輛車，否則根本無法進行補給。所以我們可以推論確定叛軍的Buk不是成建制來的，而是單輛從政府軍手中繳獲的。可是一輛飛弹車没有搜索雷達，能打下一萬多公尺高的目標嗎？答案是可以的：Buk是半主動雷達導引，每輛飛弹車上載有四枚飛弹和一座火控雷達，如果营部作戦受損，單輛飛弹車的火控雷達收不到指揮信號，可以改到緊急作戦模​​式，以火控雷達充當搜索雷達使用（搜索半徑35公里）;烏克蘭的Buk系統用的是舊式的9M38導弹，可是即使是這類舊式的9M38​​也有兩萬公尺的最大射高，打下MH17是綽綽有餘的。其實民航機的飛行軌跡和軍機差别很大，如果有正常的搜索雷達，一看便知，所以一羣烏合之眾，没受過訓練，用緊急作戦模​​式打下MH17，從這角度看也是最合理的解釋。



现在我們把事實真相分析出來了，可以由此討論MH17事件的過錯在哪一方。當然飛彈是叛軍打的，雖然是誤撃，還是有责任的。這责任有多大呢？我认为是遠小於1988年美軍誤撃伊朗航空655號班機的。當年美伊並不處於交戦狀態，而烏克蘭政府軍和叛軍已經打了一陣子了，幾天前還有軍機被撃落；655號班機並没有像MH17一様偏離正常航线；655號班機被撃的時候，還在伊朗领空；誤撃655的美軍不是烏合之眾，而是最先進的導弹巡洋艦。台灣人當年並没有對美國做任何谴责，现在也就没有道德上的基礎來谴责烏克蘭叛軍。美國人向來是只問敵我，不問是非，台灣人没有必要學他們的雙重標准。其實我個人覺得整個事件裡責任最大的是馬航：明明是交戰區，明明剛有軍機被撃落了，馬航還要硬闖，這不是拿乘客的生命開玩笑？馬來西亞搞種族歧视，華人買地上大學都受到嚴格的限制，更不用想要擔任企業要職了，结果是一大堆不適任的馬來人把國家弄得亂七八糟，大家還是避免把生命交到他们手裡为妙。

很巧合的在我登出“對MH17事件之分析”的同時，美國眾議員Ron Paul也寫了一篇對MH17事件的評論文章。他覺得美國急着把這事件的責任賴到普丁的頭上，是不誠實又不公平的。其實為什麼美國全國動員，操弄媒體來打這口水仗是很明顯的：CIA（中央情報局）策劃烏克蘭政變觸動了俄國的戦略底線，促使普丁完全倒向中共；美國平時雖然還得裝模作様做個假道學，既然已經撕破臉，就没有什麼正義或真理的考量，從此美國對俄國的戦略目標只有一個，就是不擇手段要把普丁搞下台。很明顯的例子：顯示一套山毛櫸導彈發射系統正從烏克蘭被轉移到俄羅斯的一段類似視頻是編造的，背景中的公告板顯示視頻是在小鎮克拉諾阿梅斯克城拍攝的，該鎮自5月11日以來一直在烏克蘭政府軍控制之下。

Ron Paul是美國聯邦政府裡唯一一個誠實又有見識的人。當然眾人皆醉我獨醒，讓他成了眾矢之的；一般美國媒體忙著罵他是瘋子還來不及，更别想要登他的文章了，所以他只好開自己的網站。這篇文章如下（我的中文打字很慢，翻譯的工作就交給打字强的讀者了）：


What the Media Won’t Report About Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17
written by ron paul
sunday july 20, 2014

Just days after the tragic crash of a Malaysian Airlines flight over eastern Ukraine, Western politicians and media joined together to gain the maximum propaganda value from the disaster. It had to be Russia; it had to be Putin, they said. President Obama held a press conference to claim – even before an investigation – that it was pro-Russian rebels in the region who were responsible. His ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, did the same at the UN Security Council – just one day after the crash!

While western media outlets rush to repeat government propaganda on the event, there are a few things they will not report.

They will not report that the crisis in Ukraine started late last year, when EU and US-supported protesters plotted the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych. Without US-sponsored “regime change,” it is unlikely that hundreds would have been killed in the unrest that followed. Nor would the Malaysian Airlines crash have happened.

The media has reported that the plane must have been shot down by Russian forces or Russian-backed separatists, because the missile that reportedly brought down the plane was Russian made. But they will not report that the Ukrainian government also uses the exact same Russian-made weapons.

They will not report that the post-coup government in Kiev has, according to OSCE monitors, killed 250 people in the breakaway Lugansk region since June, including 20 killed as government forces bombed the city center the day after the plane crash! Most of these are civilians and together they roughly equal the number killed in the plane crash. By contrast, Russia has killed no one in Ukraine, and the separatists have struck largely military, not civilian, targets.

They will not report that the US has strongly backed the Ukrainian government in these attacks on civilians, which a State Department spokeswoman called “measured and moderate.”

They will not report that neither Russia nor the separatists in eastern Ukraine have anything to gain but everything to lose by shooting down a passenger liner full of civilians.

They will not report that the Ukrainian government has much to gain by pinning the attack on Russia, and that the Ukrainian prime minister has already expressed his pleasure that Russia is being blamed for the attack.

They will not report that the missile that apparently shot down the plane was from a sophisticated surface-to-air missile system that requires a good deal of training that the separatists do not have.

They will not report that the separatists in eastern Ukraine have inflicted considerable losses on the Ukrainian government in the week before the plane was downed.

They will not report how similar this is to last summer’s US claim that the Assad government in Syria had used poison gas against civilians in Ghouta. Assad was also gaining the upper hand in his struggle with US-backed rebels and the US claimed that the attack came from Syrian government positions. Then, US claims led us to the brink of another war in the Middle East. At the last minute public opposition forced Obama to back down – and we have learned since then that US claims about the gas attack were false.

Of course it is entirely possible that the Obama administration and the US media has it right this time, and Russia or the separatists in eastern Ukraine either purposely or inadvertently shot down this aircraft. The real point is, it's very difficult to get accurate information so everybody engages in propaganda. At this point it would be unwise to say the Russians did it, the Ukrainian government did it, or the rebels did it. Is it so hard to simply demand a real investigation?